Monday, February 9, 2009

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) Spins-off Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) in IPO Filled Week

As another average Monday comes to an end on Wall Street, a not so predictable rest of the week still awaits. It looks as if IPOs are back with a bang this week after almost 10 months of being on somewhat of a hiatus due to the deepening recession our country, as well as the rest of the world, is seemingly falling deeper into. After Visa (V) went public last March in its record breaking IPO, as well as a few other IPO duds between then and now, it looks as if investors might be again getting back their taste for initial public offerings. Investors who are interested have plenty of options to choose from tomorrow and Wednesday. NIVS Intellimedia, a chinese producer of consumer electronics, Changing World Technologies, a producer of organic fertilizer and bio-fuels, O'Gara Group, a provider of homeland defense products and services, and Mead Johnson Nutrition, the global leader in manufacturing pediatric nutrition products all of who will begin trading tomorrow. If that’s not enough to wake up your risk appetite, you still have Madison Square Capital, a newly formed REIT planning to invest in agency securities., which will begin trading on Wednesday. Now I must admit, that is quite an interesting group of companies going public and should stir up quite a bit of attention tomorrow and Wednesday, but the one I am interested in starting a position in is Mead Johnson Nutrition.

For those of you who are unaware of the corporate structure, Mead Johnson Nutrition is currently a part of Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) and is going to be spun-off in what appears to be a divide and conquer strategy to possibly acquire another pharmaceutical company or at least be prepared to do so should the opportunity arise. Many pharmaceutical companies have patents on drugs with expiration dates coming up in the next few years. When their patent expires the revenue created from these drugs will no longer be guaranteed, and probably non-existent, therefore cutting huge chunks from some company’s bottom line.

It should come as no surprise then, that Bristol Myers Squibb's own blood thinner drug Plavix, which accounted for $1.47 billion dollars in sales in the fourth quarter alone, will lose its patent for the drug in 2011. Bristol Myers Squibb is no stranger to asset trimming by spinning off companies that aren't involved in the company’s core pharmaceutical business. In 2001 it spun off its orthopedic device maker under the name Zimmer Holdings (ZMH). If you'll look at the chart for Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) from 2001 until just recently you will see that the spin off seemed to be successful as the share price has seemed to steadily increase for the past 8 years until the recent market correction.



Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMY) original estimate for revenue from the spin-off was $1 billion, and due to current market conditions is now down to $564 million. The big difference in the numbers should be no huge deal for Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) as it seems that they will eventually hit their original estimate of $1 billion through secondary offerings and such by the time the spin-off is completed. I don't expect Mead Johnson Nutrition to make any major jumps in either direction on its first trading day so I plan to watch it move a bit before I decide to by any shares or options contracts. Mead Johnson Nutrition will be the only publicly traded company in its sector. Children's nutrition is a profitable market with high growth prospects. Citibank, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America will be underwriting the offering tomorrow of 28.8 million shares at a price of $21 - $24 a share. Mead Johnson Nutrition will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange tomorrow under the ticker (MJN).

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Opportunity in Medium Term Call Options for Dryships (DRYS)

Dryships (DRYS), as with every other drybulk shipping company on the market, has taken a tremendous beating recently. Back in November, with the general market, Dryships (DRYS) hit its 52 week low of $3.04, and then charged back up the next 45 days to around $17.00 a share netting brave investors in the company a solid 400% gain in less than 60 days. While analysts estimates went down again within the last couple of days, from $5.02 to $3.76, the Baltic Dry Index has just recently come off its lows of about $660 to a recent close of $1070. One can argue also that analysts estimates are more than likely off, or at least behind the market.



I feel that a safe way to profit from this wildly volatile stock in an already volatile market would be investing in medium-term Dryships (DRYS) call options with an expiration of June 2009, and a strike price of $2.50. I put in a limit order for $2.50, which leaves me at a break even amount for the trade of $5.00. Anything over $5.00 between now and the 3rd Friday in June is purely profit and i expect to sell the options closer to now than to June and cash in on some of extrinsic value that should be left.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

3 Stock Ideas for Dividend Investors

With dividends being cut at the fastest rate in 50 years, dividend investors suddenly have their work cut out for them. Most dividend investors, invest in dividend stocks because of the low maintenance requirements and the compounding advantages that they bring to the owner. In a market like this, dividend investors, in fact have more maintenance to perform on their portfolio than most other stock investors. Investors in dividend stocks now have to watch their investments like a hawk to ensure that their strategy doesn’t fly out the window and leave them behind. Though having to perform more upkeep than most are used to, if they remain attentive to their investments they will reap the rewards of their hard labor.

I gathered up 3 dividend stocks with steady earnings outlooks when compared to their peers and no foreseeable signs of cutting dividends in the near future.


























stock Fri. Closing Price Annual % yield Forward Price to Earnings Ratio
(T) AT&T $24.62 6.70% 10.8
(BMY) Bristol Myers Squibb $21.41 5.80% 9.6
(NYX) NYSE Euronext $22.00 5.50% 7.9


I like AT&T (T) under $22.00, because they seem to remain a few steps ahead of the receding economy. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) continues to show dividend growth over a decade and running. They also aren't feeling the effects of the recession like AT&T (T). I like NYSE Euronext (NYX) because they create an excellent value play bringing along an extra 5.50% yield for the ride. Estimates down a bit and I expect they may go down a bit more, thus I am putting my limit order in for $18.00 a share, confident that my trade will execute by week's end.